For years, especially since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the trend of strengthening military forces has accelerated globally, and the Asia-Pacific region is no exception. Although it has not yet reached the level of a full-scale arms race, this trend has already had and will continue to have profound impacts on regional and global security and development. Global Concerns According to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on April 22, 2024, global military expenditure increased by 6.8% in 2023, the highest growth in over a decade, reaching a record high of $2.443 trillion. In the context of escalating wars and regional tensions, military spending has been rising worldwide, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. For the first time since 2009, military spending in all five major global regions increased simultaneously. In 2023, global defense spending accounted for 2.3% of GDP, with per capita military spending reaching $306. This reality is thought-provoking, given that billions of people worldwide still live on less than $2 a day. A report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in March 2024 noted that there are currently 55 ongoing armed conflicts globally, emphasizing that “it is rare for humanity to face so many crises escalating simultaneously.” In 2022, the United States had the highest defense budget globally at $877 billion, followed by China ($232 billion), Russia ($86.4 billion), India ($81.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($75 billion), the United Kingdom ($68.5 billion), Germany ($55.8 billion), France ($53.6 billion), South Korea ($46.4 billion), and Japan ($46 billion). This trend intensified further in 2023. Notably, the average growth rate of defense budgets in 2023 was more than twice the global economic growth rate. In other words, the world is producing “more guns than butter.” This phenomenon reflects a decline in global peace and strategic trust, as well as an increase in security concerns. According to SIPRI, European arms imports grew by 94% from 2014 to 2023. Instability in the Asia-Pacific Region Although Europe’s military spending growth is significant, Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East remain the primary markets for global arms imports. These regions include nine of the world’s top ten arms importers. Due to strategic competition among major powers and territorial and maritime disputes, the Asia-Pacific region has become a “hotspot” in the trend of strengthening military forces. Some countries with territorial or maritime disputes with China are even covertly bolstering their military capabilities. While most countries are increasing their military spending, the expenditure is concentrated in a few nations, with the United States and China accounting for 50% of global military spending. In 2024, the U.S. military budget reached $916 billion, a 2.3% increase from 2023 and a 9.6% increase from the average between 2014 and 2023. Of this, $35.7 billion was allocated for military aid to Ukraine. Due to strategic competition with China and Russia, the need for military aid to Ukraine, and involvement in multiple global hotspots, the United States plans to make large-scale defense equipment purchases. Currently, the U.S. has over 750 military bases on all continents except Antarctica and is involved in counter-terrorism operations in 85 countries. This vast military machine consumes a significant amount of funding. Even before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. Department of Defense had planned to spend at least $7.3 trillion over the next decade, a figure four times the budget of President Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan, which is $1.7 trillion. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the astonishing rate of weapon consumption on the battlefield have also presented significant business opportunities for the U.S. military-industrial complex. Compared to the United States, China’s military spending is relatively lower but still dominant in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024 alone, China’s military spending reached $296 billion, a 6% increase from 2023 and a 60% increase from the average over the past decade, accounting for half of the total military spending in Asia and Oceania. International observers believe that China’s actual defense budget may be much higher than the published figures, as research and development costs are not included in the defense budget. Russia, on par with the United States and China, remains a military powerhouse. Despite initial difficulties in the conflict with Ukraine, Russia’s defense industry has gradually adapted to the war, demonstrating surprising weapons production capabilities that have impressed the United States and the West. In 2024, Russia’s defense spending doubled from 2023. Although this figure is still lower than the Soviet-era levels of 12-17% of GDP, it is equivalent to U.S. military spending in the 1980s. Notably, this is the first time in modern Russian history that the military budget has accounted for 6% of GDP and exceeded spending in the social sector. From a supply perspective, according to NATO statistics, NATO’s share of the global arms supply market increased from 62% to 72% between 2019 and 2023, nearly three-quarters of the global arms market. A SIPRI report indicated that for the first time in 25 years, the United States has become the largest arms supplier to Asia and Oceania. Currently, the U.S. accounts for 34% of the region’s total arms imports, compared to 19% for Russia and 13% for China. Meanwhile, South Korea has emerged as a rising arms exporter, thanks to export orders from Eastern European countries. According to SIPRI, South Korea became the world’s ninth-largest arms exporter in 2022, up from 31st place in 2000. From the perspective of arms imports, a SIPRI report showed that the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 41% of global arms purchases between 2018 and 2022. Arms imports to East Asian countries increased by 21%, with the largest increases seen in the United States’ two major allies, South Korea and Japan, at 61% and 171%, respectively. After long adhering to “pacifism,” Japan plans to acquire unprecedented offensive capabilities since the 1940s by purchasing hundreds of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles. As the largest arms importer in Oceania, Australia’s imports increased by 23%. Malaysia purchased fighter jets from South Korea, while Taiwan purchased weapons from the United States and commissioned domestically produced amphibious assault ships. The Philippines plans to expand runways and ports to accommodate the largest U.S. military presence in the country in decades. Additionally, Australia announced a $200 billion plan to build nuclear-powered submarines with the U.S. and the UK under the AUKUS agreement, making it the seventh country globally to possess nuclear submarines. According to a SIPRI report, India is the third-largest defense spender According to a report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, India is the world’s third largest defense budget spender and the world’s largest arms importer. In 2019-2023, India accounted for 9.8% of the world’s total arms imports. Although overall imports have only increased slightly, India is gradually expanding its arms suppliers outside of Russia. During the period 2014-2023, India’s arms imports increased by 4.7%, with Russia remaining its main supplier, accounting for 36% of India’s total arms imports. Even in the face of challenges in the global economy, India’s defense budget still achieved a double-digit growth of 13% in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, reaching US$72.6 billion. Multiple causes, common consequencesInternational analysts believe that the trend of increasing military power in the Asia-Pacific region is mainly due to the influence of geostrategic competition, territorial and maritime disputes, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The world is transitioning from an old order to a new order. Looking back at history, researcher Graham Allison pointed out that in 16 power transitions between the world’s first and second largest powers, wars broke out in 12 of them. This historical precedent is worrying, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where the strategic competition between China and the United States is becoming increasingly fierce. The major risk in the region is that the four major hot issues of the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are all directly affected by the strategic competition between China and the United States. Although economic interdependence and the existence of nuclear weapons make war between major powers unthinkable today, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict shows that the risk of direct conflict between major powers and even nuclear war still exists. More than a hundred years ago, the First World War broke out even though European countries had close economic ties at the time.
Even if war does not break out, the current trend of increasing military power in the Asia-Pacific region has brought many adverse consequences. First, the necessary resources for economic and social development will be significantly reduced, and many countries may not be able to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Second, trust between neighboring countries will further deteriorate driven by the security dilemma.
Therefore, strengthening dialogue and resolving differences between countries through peaceful means based on international law is the only viable path at present. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region urgently need to strengthen strategic mutual trust. History shows that military means have never been able to solve problems between countries. (End)
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